Rennes 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rennes face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lille travel to Roazhon Park to take on Rennes in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rennes stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rennes at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Lille — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Lille's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rennes at 1.20 PPG versus Lille's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Rennes, 2 for Lille and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Rennes 0–1 Lille — a Lille win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rennes in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Lille 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 56% | Lille 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rennes surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Lille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.23 xG and Lille 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.030 / defence 0.847 | Lille attack 0.909 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.332. Lille bring a tight defence (rating 0.780, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Rennes's projected output down. Data: built from Rennes's last 55 games and Lille's last 55.
Result probabilities: Rennes 39% | Draw 33% | Lille 28%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.59 | Draw 3.04 | Lille 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 40% (last 10 home games) | Lille 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 39% | Draw 33% | Lille 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Rennes 1.23 / Lille 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.030 / def 0.847 | Lille attack 0.909 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Rennes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Lille xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Lille FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Lille kick off?
Rennes vs Lille kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Lille?
Rennes 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Rennes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Lille part of?
Rennes vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 39% chance of winning, Lille a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rennes and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Rennes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rennes's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 55 games and Lille's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.04
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
Lille xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
8%
12.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Rennes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Rennes and 1.02 for Lille, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 19W 12D 24L from 55 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 11L across 55 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rennes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 12W 5D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lille's away record stands at 8W 12D 7L across their last 27 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.56 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Lille
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Lille in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 19W 12D 24L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Lille have gone 25W 19D 11L in their last 55 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Lille away?
Rennes's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.52 PPG; Lille away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rennes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lille have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Rennes's record when hosting Lille specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rennes
4
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lille?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 1, Lille have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Rennes 1-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 63%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Rennes) and 41% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 41%; Lille in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Lille matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rennes's games and 52% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Rennes's recent games and 41% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Rennes's recent matches and 67% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Rennes 0-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.23 xG and Lille 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 39% | Draw 33% | Lille 28%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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