Reims 0-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Marseille at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reims and Marseille meet at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Marseille (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Marseille have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Marseille are 0.60 PPG clear of Reims in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Reims, 0 for Marseille and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 48% versus Marseille 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 36% | Marseille 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.17 xG and Marseille 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.959 / defence 1.078 | Marseille attack 1.173 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.203. Data: 33 Reims games / 33 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 29% | Draw 26% | Marseille 45%. Fair-value odds: Reims 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Marseille 2.22. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Marseille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Reims 50% | Marseille 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 29% | Draw 26% | Marseille 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Reims 1.17 / Marseille 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.959 / def 1.078 | Marseille attack 1.173 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Marseille (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Marseille xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Marseille kick off?
Reims vs Marseille kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Marseille?
Reims 0 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Reims vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Marseille part of?
Reims vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 29% chance of winning, Marseille a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Reims and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Marseille?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Marseille 0W.
What form are Reims and Marseille in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Marseille (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Reims's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Marseille's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (1.17x) against Reims's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
29%
3.47
26%
3.83
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Reims xG
Total xG
2.69
1.52
Marseille xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
6%
15.89
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Reims and 1.52 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Reims have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 9W 13D 11L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Marseille's form line: 18W 8D 7L from 33 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Marseille are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Marseille have gone 10W 3D 3L from 16 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Reims are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Marseille in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Marseille in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 9W 13D 11L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Marseille have gone 18W 8D 7L in their last 33 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.31 PPG; Marseille away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Reims or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Marseille in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won 4-1 on 7 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Reims
2
Draws
4
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Marseille?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Marseille have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Reims 3-1 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Reims see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Marseille 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Reims) and 38% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Marseille in 44%; Reims have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Reims's recent games and 38% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Marseille tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Marseille in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Reims 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Reims 0-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.17 xG and Marseille 1.52 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Reims fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Marseille attack 1.17 / defence 1.02, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 29% | Draw 26% | Marseille 45%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 36%, Marseille 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Marseille's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.