Reims 2-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reims host Auxerre at Stade Auguste-Delaune II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reims — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reims have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stade Auguste-Delaune II — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Reims) versus 0.90 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reims 55% and Auxerre 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.79 xG and Auxerre 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.873 / defence 1.009 | Auxerre attack 0.764 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.439. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Reims games / 11 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 53% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 4.35. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 70% | Auxerre 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 53% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Reims 1.79 / Auxerre 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.873 / def 1.009 | Auxerre attack 0.764 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Reims (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Auxerre xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Auxerre kick off?
Reims vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Auxerre?
Reims 2 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Reims vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Auxerre part of?
Reims vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 53% chance of winning, Auxerre a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Reims and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Auxerre in?
Reims (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Reims's attack at 0.87x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.08
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Reims xG
Total xG
2.90
1.11
Auxerre xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
26.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Reims and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Reims and 1.11 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims come into this having played 49 games, going 12W 19D 18L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.61 PPG from 49 outings (21W 16D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Reims — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Reims's home form reads 5W 9D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (10W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 12W 19D 18L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 21W 16D 12L in their last 49 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Reims's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Reims
1
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Reims 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 54%, Auxerre 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Reims) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Reims's games and 67% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reims vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Reims's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Auxerre tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reims edge out Auxerre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Auxerre 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.79 xG and Auxerre 1.11 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.87 / defence 1.01 against Auxerre attack 0.76 / defence 1.43, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 53% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Reims winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.