Paris Saint Germain 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris Saint Germain vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Nice travel to Parc des Princes to take on Paris Saint Germain. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 December 2021, 20:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Paris Saint Germain have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 0L across 7 games at Parc des Princes this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.71 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Paris Saint Germain are significantly better at Parc des Princes than their overall form suggests.
Nice — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's away record: 5W 0D 2L from 7 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.14 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Paris Saint Germain are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Nice trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 67% versus Nice 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 73% | Nice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.51 xG and Nice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.365 / defence 0.989 | Nice attack 1.014 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.242. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 15 Paris Saint Germain games / 15 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 42% | Draw 27% | Nice 30%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Nice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Paris Saint Germain 71% | Nice 29%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 42% | Draw 27% | Nice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.51 / Nice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.365 / def 0.989 | Nice attack 1.014 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Nice xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice kicked off at 20:05 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Paris Saint Germain 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Nice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 42% chance of winning, Nice a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Nice (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.36) and Nice's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
42%
2.35
27%
3.68
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
2.76
1.25
Nice xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
7%
14.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.25 for Nice, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris Saint Germain come into this having played 15 games, going 13W 1D 1L for 2.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Paris Saint Germain's home form reads 7W 0D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 2.14 points per game from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.67 scored and 0.80 conceded. Paris Saint Germain's scoring rate against Nice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Nice in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 13W 1D 1L in their last 15 games (2.67 PPG), while Nice have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Nice away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 3.00 PPG; Nice away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Nice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
2
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Nice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Nice?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 71%, Nice 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Paris Saint Germain and 57% for Nice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice in 43%; Nice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 29% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 57% of Nice's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Nice tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Nice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Paris Saint Germain's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 16, as Paris Saint Germain and Nice drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.51 xG and Nice 1.25 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Nice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.36 / defence 0.99 against Nice attack 1.01 / defence 0.92, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 42% | Draw 27% | Nice 30%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 73%, Nice 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 1.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.