Nice 0-3 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Strasbourg travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 3W 3D 2L this season (8 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Strasbourg have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.86 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Nice) versus 1.60 (Strasbourg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 38% versus Strasbourg 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 50% | Strasbourg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.20 xG and Strasbourg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.888 / defence 1.100 | Strasbourg attack 0.854 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.252. Data: 16 Nice games / 16 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 36% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 34%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Strasbourg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Nice 50% | Strasbourg 71% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 36% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Nice 1.20 / Strasbourg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.888 / def 1.100 | Strasbourg attack 0.854 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Nice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Strasbourg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Strasbourg kick off?
Nice vs Strasbourg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Strasbourg?
Nice 0 - 3 Strasbourg.
Where is Nice vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Strasbourg part of?
Nice vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 36% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nice and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Strasbourg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nice and Strasbourg in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.89) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.32
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nice xG
Total xG
2.38
1.18
Strasbourg xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nice and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nice and 1.18 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nice come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 4D 4L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Strasbourg sit at 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.75 PPG, Strasbourg on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Nice's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Strasbourg have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Strasbourg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.94 scored and 1.38 conceded. Strasbourg's attacking output running into Nice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 69%.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Strasbourg away?
Nice's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.57 PPG; Strasbourg away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Nice or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when Strasbourg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
4
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Strasbourg?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Strasbourg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Strasbourg 3-1 Nice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 57%, Strasbourg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Nice) and 43% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Nice's games and 71% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Nice's recent games and 43% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Strasbourg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Nice 0-3 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.20 xG and Strasbourg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Strasbourg outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Strasbourg attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 36% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 34%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 50%, Strasbourg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Strasbourg's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.75 PPG, Strasbourg 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.