Nice 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Nice welcome Reims to Allianz Riviera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nice have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nice have posted 5W 2D 3L at Allianz Riviera — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims away from home this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nice at 2.10 PPG versus Reims's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nice have won 1, Reims 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nice trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Reims trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 44% versus Reims 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 46% | Reims 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.25 xG and Reims 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.156 / defence 0.739 | Reims attack 0.770 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.240. Reims's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Nice's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Nice games / 61 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 35% | Reims 19%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.13 | Draw 2.86 | Reims 5.26. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Nice 30% | Reims 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 35% | Reims 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Nice 1.25 / Reims 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.156 / def 0.739 | Reims attack 0.770 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Nice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Reims xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Reims kick off?
Nice vs Reims kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Reims?
Nice 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is Nice vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Reims part of?
Nice vs Reims is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 47% chance of winning, Reims a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Nice and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Reims?
Record (3 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 2 | Reims 0W.
What form are Nice and Reims in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Reims (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.16x the league average against Reims's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
47%
2.13
35%
2.89
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Nice xG
Total xG
1.95
0.70
Reims xG
2.13
47%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
5%
18.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Nice and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nice and 0.70 for Reims, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nice's recent record stands at 30W 14D 17L from 61 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 18W 25D 18L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.70 PPG, Reims on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nice have managed 15W 7D 8L from 30 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 8W 14D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.20 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Reims in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 30W 14D 17L in their last 61 games (1.70 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 25D 18L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Reims away?
Nice's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.73 PPG; Reims away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Nice or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Reims in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Reims runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Nice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Nice's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Nice
4
Draws
0
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Nice have won 4, Reims have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Nice 1-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Reims?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 47%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nice) and 33% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 30% of games; Reims in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Nice's recent matches and 57% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Nice's recent games and 33% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Reims tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Reims in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice and Reims finished level at 0-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.25 xG and Reims 0.70 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.16 / defence 0.74 against Reims attack 0.77 / defence 0.73, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 47% | Draw 35% | Reims 19%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 46%, Reims 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.70 PPG, Reims 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.