Nantes 1-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau plays host to Nantes versus Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 12 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Lille have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Nantes, 1.20 for Lille — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Nantes 0W, Lille 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Lille winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 56% versus Lille 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 41% | Lille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.60 xG and Lille 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.054 / defence 0.952 | Lille attack 0.988 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.325. Data: 39 Nantes games / 39 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nantes 45% | Draw 25% | Lille 30%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Lille 3.33. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Lille 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 45% | Draw 25% | Lille 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Nantes 1.60 / Lille 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.054 / def 0.952 | Lille attack 0.988 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Nantes (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lille xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Lille kick off?
Nantes vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lille?
Nantes 1 - 1 Lille.
Where is Nantes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lille part of?
Nantes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 45% chance of winning, Lille a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nantes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lille?
Record (2 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 1W.
What form are Nantes and Lille in?
Nantes (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Lille (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nantes's attack rating (1.05) and Lille's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.99x) against Nantes's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.00
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.84
1.25
Lille xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
16.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Nantes and 1.25 for Lille, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 15W 11D 13L from 39 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 11L across 39 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Nantes against 1.49 for Lille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 11W 4D 4L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lille's away record stands at 7W 5D 7L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.33 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Lille in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 15W 11D 13L in their last 39 games (1.44 PPG), while Lille have gone 15W 13D 11L in their last 39 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lille away?
Nantes's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.95 PPG; Lille away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nantes
3
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Lille have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lille 1-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 53%, Lille 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nantes) and 53% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Nantes's games and 63% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nantes's recent games and 53% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lille tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lille in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes and Lille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 2, as Nantes and Lille drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.60 xG and Lille 1.25 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Lille attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 45% | Draw 25% | Lille 30%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 41%, Lille 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.44 PPG, Lille 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.