Nantes 1-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau plays host to Nantes versus Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nantes's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season.
Lille have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lille away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lille are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Lille hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Lille winning.
It is worth noting that Lille have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus Lille 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Lille 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.81 xG and Lille 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.647 / defence 1.279 | Lille attack 0.799 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.397. Nantes's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Nantes games / 70 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 21% | Draw 28% | Lille 51%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Lille 1.96. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 30% | Lille 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 21% | Draw 28% | Lille 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Nantes 0.81 / Lille 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.647 / def 1.279 | Lille attack 0.799 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Lille (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lille xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Lille kick off?
Nantes vs Lille kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Lille?
Nantes 1 - 2 Lille.
Where is Nantes vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Lille part of?
Nantes vs Lille is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 21% chance of winning, Lille a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nantes and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lille?
Record (5 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 2 | Lille 3W.
What form are Nantes and Lille in?
Nantes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Lille (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nantes's attack rating (0.65) and Lille's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.80x) against Nantes's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
21%
4.79
28%
3.55
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.24
1.43
Lille xG
4.79
21%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
5%
19.98
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 15.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nantes and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Nantes and 1.43 for Lille, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 16W 21D 33L from 70 games, a 0.99 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Lille, meanwhile, have gone 34W 20D 16L across 70 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 8W 11D 16L from 35 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lille's away record stands at 10W 13D 12L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.61 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Lille in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 16W 21D 33L in their last 70 games (0.99 PPG), while Lille have gone 34W 20D 16L in their last 70 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.00 PPG; Lille away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Nantes or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lille in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nantes
3
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Lille have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Lille 1-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 43%, Lille 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nantes) and 37% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 31%; Nantes have failed to score in 43% of games; Lille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nantes's recent matches and 54% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nantes's recent games and 37% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Lille tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lille in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Nantes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Nantes 1-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.81 xG and Lille 1.43 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.65 / defence 1.28 against Lille attack 0.80 / defence 0.89, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 21% | Draw 28% | Lille 51%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Lille 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.99. That form edge translated into the three points. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.