Nantes 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Nantes are significantly better at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Nantes, 0 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Nantes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 60% versus Clermont Foot 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Clermont Foot 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.60 xG and Clermont Foot 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.173 / defence 0.871 | Clermont Foot attack 0.925 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.465. Data: 50 Nantes games / 50 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 47% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 28%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 3.57. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 70% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 47% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Nantes 1.60 / Clermont Foot 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.173 / def 0.871 | Clermont Foot attack 0.925 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: Nantes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Clermont Foot xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Nantes 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Nantes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Nantes vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 47% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nantes and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Nantes 2W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in?
Nantes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantes's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.93x) against Nantes's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.86
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.78
1.18
Clermont Foot xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Nantes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Nantes and 1.18 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nantes's recent record stands at 17W 15D 18L from 50 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 25L across 50 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Nantes against 1.06 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 6W 5D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nantes are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.08 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantes have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 14W 11D 25L in their last 50 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Nantes's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.88 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nantes
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Nantes have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Nantes 1-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Clermont Foot?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 54%, Clermont Foot 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nantes) and 46% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 29% of games; Clermont Foot in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Nantes's recent matches and 42% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nantes's recent games and 46% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes and Clermont Foot finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.60 xG and Clermont Foot 1.18 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 47% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 28%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Clermont Foot 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.32 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.