Montpellier 2-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Montpellier welcome Le Havre to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Montpellier haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Montpellier at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Le Havre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Le Havre haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Le Havre's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Montpellier) versus 1.80 (Le Havre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Montpellier register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Le Havre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Montpellier trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Le Havre trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 58% versus Le Havre 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 63% | Le Havre 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.78 xG and Le Havre 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.038 / defence 1.052 | Le Havre attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.242. Data: 38 Montpellier games / 0 Le Havre games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Montpellier 51% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 22%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 4.55. Montpellier hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Montpellier offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 60% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 51% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Montpellier 1.78 / Le Havre 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.038 / def 1.052 | Le Havre attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Le Havre xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Le Havre kick off?
Montpellier vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Montpellier 2 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Montpellier vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Le Havre part of?
Montpellier vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 51% chance of winning, Le Havre a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Montpellier and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Montpellier and Le Havre in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Montpellier (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 1.04x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.68
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.89
1.11
Le Havre xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
4%
27.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.11 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Montpellier's recent record stands at 15W 5D 18L from 38 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. Montpellier haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 3L across 38 games — 1.97 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. Le Havre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Montpellier heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Montpellier have managed 7W 3D 9L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 9W 8D 2L across 19 trips, a 1.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.21 scored and 0.50 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Pre-Season
Le Havre
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 15W 5D 18L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 20W 15D 3L in their last 38 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.26 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Le Havre in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Montpellier and Le Havre runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Le Havre have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Montpellier's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Montpellier
1
Draws
2
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Le Havre have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Montpellier 0-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 68%, Le Havre 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Montpellier) and 21% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 47%; Le Havre in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Montpellier's games and 42% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Montpellier's recent games and 21% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Le Havre tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier and Le Havre share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier and Le Havre finished level at 2-2 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.78 xG and Le Havre 1.11 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 51% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 22%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 63%, Le Havre 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.