Montpellier 1-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Montpellier at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Montpellier welcome Clermont Foot to Stade de la Mosson. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 2L across 8 games at Stade de la Mosson this term (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 2D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.62 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Montpellier are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 56% versus Clermont Foot 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 44% | Clermont Foot 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.81 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.922 / defence 1.049 | Clermont Foot attack 0.742 / defence 1.667. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.265. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.667 — this is suppressing Montpellier's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Montpellier games / 16 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 55% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 19%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Montpellier (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Montpellier at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Montpellier 50% | Clermont Foot 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 55% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Montpellier 1.81 / Clermont Foot 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.922 / def 1.049 | Clermont Foot attack 0.742 / def 1.667 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Montpellier 1 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot part of?
Montpellier vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 55% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Montpellier and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Clermont Foot?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Montpellier and Clermont Foot in?
Montpellier (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.92x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
55%
1.80
26%
3.89
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.80
0.98
Clermont Foot xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
3%
32.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Montpellier and 0.98 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 16 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 6W 4D 6L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 3W 5D 8L from 16 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Montpellier are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 1.75 PPG from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Montpellier are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.19 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Clermont Foot away?
Montpellier's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.75 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Montpellier and Clermont Foot runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Montpellier's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Montpellier
4
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Clermont Foot?
From 8 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Montpellier 1-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 50%, Clermont Foot 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Montpellier) and 62% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Montpellier's recent matches and 50% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Montpellier vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Montpellier's recent games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Montpellier edge out Clermont Foot 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Clermont Foot 1-0 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.81 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Clermont Foot landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Clermont Foot attack 0.74 / defence 1.67, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 55% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 19%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 44%, Clermont Foot 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Montpellier arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.