Monaco 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Nice travel to Stade Louis II to take on Monaco. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Monaco's home record at Stade Louis II: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis II.
Nice — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Nice's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Monaco carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Monaco, 0 for Nice and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Monaco trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nice trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 50% versus Nice 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 53% | Nice 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.39 xG and Nice 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.192 / defence 0.912 | Nice attack 0.725 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.188. Data: 32 Monaco games / 32 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 50% | Draw 30% | Nice 20%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Nice 5.00. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 50% | Nice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 50% | Draw 30% | Nice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Monaco 1.39 / Nice 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.192 / def 0.912 | Nice attack 0.725 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Monaco (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Nice xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Nice kick off?
Monaco vs Nice kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Nice?
Monaco 1 - 0 Nice.
Where is Monaco vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Nice part of?
Monaco vs Nice is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 50% chance of winning, Nice a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Monaco and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nice?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 0W | Draws 1 | Nice 0W.
What form are Monaco and Nice in?
Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Nice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.19) and Nice's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
50%
2.00
30%
3.30
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.18
0.79
Nice xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
5%
20.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.4 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Monaco and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Monaco and 0.79 for Nice, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 15W 8D 9L from 32 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 9L across 32 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.66 PPG, Nice on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.31 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Nice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Nice in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 15W 8D 9L in their last 32 games (1.66 PPG), while Nice have gone 16W 7D 9L in their last 32 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Nice away?
Monaco's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.94 PPG; Nice away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Monaco or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Nice in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Nice won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Monaco
3
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Nice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nice 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Nice?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Nice 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Monaco) and 50% (Nice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Nice in 50%; Nice in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Monaco's recent matches and 25% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Monaco's matches and 50% of Nice's.
Do Monaco and Nice tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Nice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Nice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Nice 1-0 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.39 xG and Nice 0.79 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.19 / defence 0.91 against Nice attack 0.72 / defence 1.00, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 50% | Draw 30% | Nice 20%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 53%, Nice 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.66 PPG, Nice 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.