Monaco 4-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Auxerre travel to Stade Louis-II to take on Monaco. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monaco — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Louis-II — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Monaco are significantly better at Stade Louis-II than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Monaco at 1.40 PPG versus Auxerre's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Monaco register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Monaco have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Auxerre have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Monaco winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Monaco and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Monaco in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 58% versus Auxerre 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 62% | Auxerre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 2.43 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.174 / defence 1.081 | Auxerre attack 0.770 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.302. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Monaco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Monaco games / 19 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 65% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 14%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Auxerre 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 60% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 65% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 62% | xG Monaco 2.43 / Auxerre 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.174 / def 1.081 | Auxerre attack 0.770 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Monaco (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Auxerre xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Auxerre kick off?
Monaco vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Monaco 4 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Monaco vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Auxerre part of?
Monaco vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 65% chance of winning, Auxerre a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Monaco and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Monaco 3W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Monaco and Auxerre in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monaco's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.43. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.75
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.51
1.08
Auxerre xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
9%
11.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
1%
83.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Monaco and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Monaco and 1.08 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 30W 11D 12L from 53 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 26W 14D 13L across 53 games — 1.74 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.91 PPG, Auxerre on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 15W 5D 6L from 26 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 9W 6D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.72 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 30W 11D 12L in their last 53 games (1.91 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 26W 14D 13L in their last 53 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Auxerre away?
Monaco's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.92 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Monaco or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Monaco
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 5, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Auxerre?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Monaco) and 54% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monaco's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Monaco's recent games and 54% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Auxerre tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Auxerre 4-2 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 2.43 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Auxerre outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.17 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 0.77 / defence 1.40, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 65% | Draw 21% | Auxerre 14%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.91 PPG, Auxerre 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.