Metz 0-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Metz and Stade Brestois 29 meet at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Metz's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Saint-Symphorien this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Metz are significantly better at Stade Saint-Symphorien than their overall form suggests.
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Metz 1W, Stade Brestois 29 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 46% versus Stade Brestois 29 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 40% | Stade Brestois 29 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.07 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.852 / defence 1.126 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.079 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.033. Data: 14 Metz games / 52 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 29% | Draw 34% | Stade Brestois 29 38%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Stade Brestois 29 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Metz 50% | Stade Brestois 29 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 29% | Draw 34% | Stade Brestois 29 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG Metz 1.07 / Stade Brestois 29 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.852 / def 1.126 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.079 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stade Brestois 29 xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Stade Brestois 29?
Metz 0 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 29% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Metz and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (2 meetings): Metz 1W | Draws 0 | Stade Brestois 29 1W.
What form are Metz and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Metz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.85x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (1.08x) against Metz's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
29%
3.49
34%
2.98
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Metz xG
Total xG
2.33
1.26
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.49
29%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Metz and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Metz and 1.26 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Metz come into this having played 52 games, going 24W 16D 12L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.27 PPG from 52 outings (17W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Metz's home form reads 11W 10D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 1.12 points per game from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Metz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Metz are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Metz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 24W 16D 12L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 17W 15D 20L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Metz's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.72 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Metz or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stade Brestois 29 have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Metz
0
Draws
5
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Metz 0-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Metz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 40%, Stade Brestois 29 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Metz) and 48% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Metz have failed to score in 28% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Metz's recent matches and 56% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Metz's recent games and 48% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Metz and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Metz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Metz 0-1 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.07 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.26 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metz fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 29% | Draw 34% | Stade Brestois 29 38%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 40%, Stade Brestois 29 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Metz arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Stade Brestois 29 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.