Metz 3-3 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Saint-Symphorien plays host to Metz versus Bordeaux in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Metz's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Metz have posted 0W 3D 3L at Stade Saint-Symphorien — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bordeaux (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Metz, 1.00 for Bordeaux — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Metz have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Bordeaux in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Metz — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Metz 62% and Bordeaux 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Metz 62% | Bordeaux 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.32 xG and Bordeaux 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.697 / defence 1.468 | Bordeaux attack 0.899 / defence 1.444. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.171. Metz's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.444 — this is suppressing Metz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Metz games / 13 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 29% | Draw 32% | Bordeaux 39%. Fair-value odds: Metz 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Bordeaux 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bordeaux at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Metz 67% | Bordeaux 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 29% | Draw 32% | Bordeaux 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Metz 1.32 / Bordeaux 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.697 / def 1.468 | Bordeaux attack 0.899 / def 1.444 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Bordeaux xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Bordeaux kick off?
Metz vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Bordeaux?
Metz 3 - 3 Bordeaux.
Where is Metz vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Bordeaux part of?
Metz vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 29% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Metz and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Metz and Bordeaux in?
Metz (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Bordeaux (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Metz's attack rating (0.70) and Bordeaux's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.90x) against Metz's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
29%
3.44
32%
3.17
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Metz xG
Total xG
2.86
1.55
Bordeaux xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
6%
16.14
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Metz and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Metz and 1.55 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Metz come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 5D 7L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.62 PPG for Metz against 0.92 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Metz's home form reads 0W 3D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Metz are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.38 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bordeaux in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Bordeaux away?
Bordeaux's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 0.50 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won 3-0 on 15 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Metz have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Metz
1
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Bordeaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Metz 3-0 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Metz and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Metz, 67% for Bordeaux — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Metz and 83% for Bordeaux. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Metz have failed to score in 33% of games; Bordeaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Bordeaux?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Metz's games and 67% of Bordeaux's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Metz vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Metz's matches and 83% of Bordeaux's.
Do Metz and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Metz have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz and Bordeaux share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Bordeaux finished level at 3-3 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.32 xG and Bordeaux 1.55 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Metz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bordeaux outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.70 / defence 1.47 against Bordeaux attack 0.90 / defence 1.44, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 29% | Draw 32% | Bordeaux 39%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 62%, Bordeaux 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 0.62 PPG, Bordeaux 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.