Marseille 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Marseille vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Metz travel to Orange Vélodrome to take on Marseille. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Marseille have posted 3W 2D 1L at Orange Vélodrome — 1.83 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Metz have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Marseille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Marseille register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Metz in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Marseille in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Metz in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Marseille 50% versus Metz 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Marseille 42% | Metz 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Marseille 2.27 xG and Metz 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Marseille attack 1.128 / defence 1.090 | Metz attack 0.888 / defence 1.559. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.181. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.559 — this is suppressing Marseille's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Marseille games / 12 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Marseille 60% | Draw 24% | Metz 15%. Fair-value odds: Marseille 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Metz 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Marseille (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Marseille are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Marseille 67% | Metz 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Marseille vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Orange Vélodrome • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Marseille 60% | Draw 24% | Metz 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Marseille 2.27 / Metz 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Marseille attack 1.128 / def 1.090 | Metz attack 0.888 / def 1.559 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Marseille (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Marseille xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Metz xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Marseille vs Metz kick off?
Marseille vs Metz kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Orange Vélodrome.
What was the final score in Marseille vs Metz?
Marseille 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Marseille vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Orange Vélodrome.
What competition is Marseille vs Metz part of?
Marseille vs Metz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Marseille vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Marseille a 60% chance of winning, Metz a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Marseille vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Marseille and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Marseille vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Metz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Marseille and Metz in?
Marseille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Metz (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Marseille's attack at 1.13x the league average against Metz's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Marseille's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.10
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Marseille xG
Total xG
3.42
1.14
Metz xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
10%
9.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
2%
62.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Marseille vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Marseille and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Marseille and 1.14 for Metz, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Marseille vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Marseille's recent record stands at 6W 4D 2L from 12 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 7L across 12 games — 0.58 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Marseille by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Marseille have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Marseille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Marseille are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.08 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Metz in 67%.
Defensively: Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Marseille
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Marseille and Metz in coming into this match?
Marseille have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Metz have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Marseille at home or Metz away?
Marseille's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Marseille at home: 1.83 PPG; Metz away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Marseille or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Metz in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Marseille have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when Marseille won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Marseille's record when hosting Metz specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Marseille
3
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Marseille have won 3, Metz have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Marseille and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Marseille 3-1 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Marseille and Metz?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Marseille at 67%, Metz at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Marseille and 83% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Marseille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Metz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Marseille home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Marseille play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Marseille's games and 67% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Marseille vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Marseille's matches and 83% of Metz's.
Do Marseille and Metz tend to score early?
Marseille have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Metz in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Marseille's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Orange Vélodrome, Regular Season - 13, as Marseille and Metz drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Marseille 2.27 xG and Metz 1.14 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Marseille fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Metz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Marseille attack 1.13 / defence 1.09 against Metz attack 0.89 / defence 1.56, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Marseille 60% | Draw 24% | Metz 15%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Marseille 42%, Metz 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Marseille's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Marseille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.