Lyon 0-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lille at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lyon vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Lyon welcome Lille to Groupama Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Lyon are significantly better at Groupama Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille away from home this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Lyon's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lyon register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Lille in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lyon, 1 for Lille and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lyon in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lille in-play and half-time data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 65% and Lille 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Lille 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.17 xG and Lille 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.969 / defence 1.387 | Lille attack 1.037 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.071. Data: 49 Lyon games / 50 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 26% | Draw 30% | Lille 44%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 80% | Lille 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 26% | Draw 30% | Lille 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Lyon 1.17 / Lille 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.969 / def 1.387 | Lille attack 1.037 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Lille (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Lille xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Lille kick off?
Lyon vs Lille kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Lille?
Lyon 0 - 2 Lille.
Where is Lyon vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Lille part of?
Lyon vs Lille is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 26% chance of winning, Lille a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lyon and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
Record (4 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 2 | Lille 1W.
What form are Lyon and Lille in?
Lyon (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Lille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
26%
3.77
30%
3.34
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.71
1.54
Lille xG
3.77
26%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lyon and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Lyon and 1.54 for Lille, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 12D 18L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.71 PPG from 49 outings (23W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.41 PPG, Lille on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 10W 8D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (7W 10D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.55 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Lille in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 19W 12D 18L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Lille have gone 23W 15D 11L in their last 49 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Lille away?
Lyon's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.52 PPG; Lille away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Lyon or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lille in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Lyon's record when hosting Lille specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lyon
3
Draws
2
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Lyon have won 5, Lille have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Lille?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 68%, Lille 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lyon) and 36% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Lyon's games and 56% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Lyon's recent games and 36% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Lille tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lille in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lyon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Lyon 0-2 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.17 xG and Lille 1.54 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lyon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.97 / defence 1.39 against Lille attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 26% | Draw 30% | Lille 44%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 59%, Lille 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.41 PPG, Lille 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.