Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade Pierre-Mauroy to take on Lille. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 38% versus Stade Brestois 29 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 38% | Stade Brestois 29 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.68 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.965 / defence 0.816 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.012 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.266. Data: 40 Lille games / 40 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 52% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 24%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Stade Brestois 29 4.17. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Lille 40% | Stade Brestois 29 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 52% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Lille 1.68 / Stade Brestois 29 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.965 / def 0.816 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.012 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Lille (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Stade Brestois 29 xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lille 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 52% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lille and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (9 meetings): Lille 3W | Draws 4 | Stade Brestois 29 2W.
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lille's attack at 0.96x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.13
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Lille xG
Total xG
2.73
1.04
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
4%
22.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Lille and 1.04 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lille's recent record stands at 22W 8D 10L from 40 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 17L across 40 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lille by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stade Brestois 29 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lille have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 4W 5D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lille are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.38 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 22W 8D 10L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lille's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.80 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Lille or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lille's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lille
5
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Stade Brestois 29?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 45%, Stade Brestois 29 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Lille) and 60% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lille's recent matches and 55% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Lille's recent games and 60% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.68 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.04 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 52% | Draw 24% | Stade Brestois 29 24%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 38%, Stade Brestois 29 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.