Lille vs Lyon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Lyon at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lille have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lyon have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lille at 2.10 PPG versus Lyon's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Lyon, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Lille.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Lyon winning.
It is worth noting that Lyon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lyon in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 39% versus Lyon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 39% | Lyon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.25 xG and Lyon 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.995 / defence 1.014 | Lyon attack 1.057 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 36 Lille games / 36 Lyon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lille 31% | Draw 30% | Lyon 39%. Fair-value odds: Lille 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Lyon 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 50% | Lyon 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 31% | Draw 30% | Lyon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Lille 1.25 / Lyon 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.995 / def 1.014 | Lyon attack 1.057 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Lyon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Lyon xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Lyon kick off?
Lille vs Lyon is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Lyon part of?
Lille vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 31% chance of winning, Lyon a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
Record (10 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 3 | Lyon 5W.
What form are Lille and Lyon in?
Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lille's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.31
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Lille xG
Total xG
2.68
1.43
Lyon xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
7%
13.71
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lille and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lille and 1.43 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 36 games, going 19W 8D 9L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.78 PPG from 36 outings (19W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.81 PPG, Lyon on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 8W 6D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.56 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Lyon in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Lyon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Lyon in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 19W 8D 9L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while Lyon have gone 19W 7D 10L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Lyon away?
Lille's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.67 PPG; Lyon away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Lille or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lyon in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Lyon runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lyon go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Lille's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lille
3
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Lyon?
From 10 meetings on record, Lille have won 2, Lyon have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Lyon 1-0 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 50%, Lyon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lille) and 50% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lyon in 44%; Lyon in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lille's recent matches and 50% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lille vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lille's recent games and 50% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Lyon tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Lyon in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.