Lille 0-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lille and Clermont Foot meet at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lille's home record at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Lille. A 0.50 PPG lead over Clermont Foot (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lille register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Clermont Foot in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Lille, 1 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 2–0 with Lille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 62% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 53% | Clermont Foot 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.51 xG and Clermont Foot 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.243 / defence 1.022 | Clermont Foot attack 1.008 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.287. Data: 58 Lille games / 58 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 40% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 32%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 80% | Clermont Foot 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 40% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Lille 1.51 / Clermont Foot 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.243 / def 1.022 | Clermont Foot attack 1.008 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Lille (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Clermont Foot xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lille vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Lille 0 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lille vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lille vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 40% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Lille and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Clermont Foot?
Record (3 meetings): Lille 2W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Lille and Clermont Foot in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.24) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.01x) against Lille's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
40%
2.50
28%
3.57
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Lille xG
Total xG
2.83
1.33
Clermont Foot xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lille and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Lille and 1.33 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lille come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 17D 17L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.12 PPG from 58 outings (17W 14D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lille's home form reads 13W 10D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (9W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lille are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.07 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 24W 17D 17L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 17W 14D 27L in their last 58 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lille's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.69 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 4-0 on 6 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Clermont Foot?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 66%, Clermont Foot 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Lille) and 45% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Lille's games and 45% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Lille's recent games and 45% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lille's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille and Clermont Foot finished level at 0-0 at Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.51 xG and Clermont Foot 1.33 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lille fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Clermont Foot landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against Clermont Foot attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 40% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 32%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 53%, Clermont Foot 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.