Lens 1-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lens at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lens vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Le Havre travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis to take on Lens. The game is scheduled for Friday 30 January 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lens — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Lens are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lens, 1 for Le Havre and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Lens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lens in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lens 42% versus Le Havre 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lens 45% | Le Havre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lens 1.50 xG and Le Havre 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lens attack 1.046 / defence 0.637 | Le Havre attack 0.751 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.316. Lens's defence rating of 0.637 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Lens games / 53 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lens 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16%. Fair-value odds: Lens 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Le Havre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Lens (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lens are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lens 30% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lens vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lens 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 36% | xG Lens 1.50 / Le Havre 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Lens attack 1.046 / def 0.637 | Le Havre attack 0.751 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Lens (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lens xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Le Havre xG
36%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lens vs Le Havre kick off?
Lens vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What was the final score in Lens vs Le Havre?
Lens 1 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Lens vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
What competition is Lens vs Le Havre part of?
Lens vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lens vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lens a 58% chance of winning, Le Havre a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Lens and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Lens vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Le Havre?
Record (5 meetings): Lens 2W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Lens and Le Havre in?
Lens (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lens's attack rating (1.05) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lens's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lens Win
58%
1.71
26%
3.84
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lens xG
Total xG
2.13
0.63
Le Havre xG
1.71
58%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
3%
29.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lens vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Lens and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lens and 0.63 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lens vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lens come into this having played 53 games, going 29W 8D 16L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Lens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.02 PPG from 53 outings (14W 12D 27L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lens's home form reads 15W 2D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.12 points per game from 26 outings (8W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lens are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.06 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Lens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lens
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lens and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lens have gone 29W 8D 16L in their last 53 games (1.79 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lens at home or Le Havre away?
Lens's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lens at home: 1.81 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Lens or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lens have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Le Havre in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lens have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Lens's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lens
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lens and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lens have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lens and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Lens 1-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lens and Le Havre?
Lens have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lens see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lens 27%, Le Havre 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lens) and 46% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lens have failed to score in 31% of games; Le Havre in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lens home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lens play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Lens's recent matches and 54% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lens vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lens's recent games and 46% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Lens edge out Le Havre 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lens beat Le Havre 1-0 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lens 1.50 xG and Le Havre 0.63 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lens attack 1.05 / defence 0.64 against Le Havre attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lens 58% | Draw 26% | Le Havre 16%, with Lens to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lens 45%, Le Havre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lens arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.