Le Havre 1-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Le Havre have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Reims's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reims away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Reims and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Le Havre 0–1 Reims — a Reims win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Reims — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 35% | Reims 48%). Note also that Reims surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Le Havre recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.31 xG and Reims 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.889 / defence 0.994 | Reims attack 0.969 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.136. Data: built from Le Havre's last 22 games and Reims's last 60.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 31% | Reims 29%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.52 | Draw 3.22 | Reims 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 40% (last 10 home games) | Reims 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 31% | Reims 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Le Havre 1.31 / Reims 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.889 / def 0.994 | Reims attack 0.969 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Reims xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Reims FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Reims kick off?
Le Havre vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Reims?
Le Havre 1 - 2 Reims.
Where is Le Havre vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Reims part of?
Le Havre vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, Reims a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Le Havre and Reims will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Le Havre vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.89x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.97x) against Le Havre's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 22 games and Reims's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.22
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.41
1.09
Reims xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.09 for Reims, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 25W 24D 11L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Reims's form line: 21W 19D 20L from 60 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Le Havre against 1.37 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 9D 5L).
On the road, Reims have gone 8W 11D 10L from their last 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.22 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Reims
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Reims in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 25W 24D 11L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while Reims have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Reims away?
Le Havre's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.86 PPG; Reims away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Reims in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Le Havre and Reims, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won Le Havre 0-3 Reims on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Reims?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 0, Reims have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2025: Reims 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 34%, Reims 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Le Havre) and 45% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 34% of games; Reims in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Reims matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Le Havre's recent matches and 52% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Le Havre's recent games and 45% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Le Havre's recent matches and 62% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Le Havre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.31 xG and Reims 1.09 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Reims outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Reims attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 40% | Draw 31% | Reims 29%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 35%, Reims 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Reims's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.65 PPG, Reims 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reims (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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