Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 37%, yet in-form Paris Saint Germain provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 20:05 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stade Océane — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Paris Saint Germain are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Paris Saint Germain in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 56% versus Paris Saint Germain 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.29 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.905 / defence 0.858 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.223 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.200. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.223 — the away xG of 1.26 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Le Havre games / 57 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 36%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Paris Saint Germain 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris Saint Germain (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 60% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 37% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Le Havre 1.29 / Paris Saint Germain 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.905 / def 0.858 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.223 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Paris Saint Germain xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:05 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Le Havre 0 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 37% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (5 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 4W.
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in?
Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.22x) against Le Havre's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.74
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.55
1.26
Paris Saint Germain xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.26 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 12D 29L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.42 PPG from 57 outings (43W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 8W 7D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 2.17 points per game from 29 outings (19W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.53 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 16W 12D 29L in their last 57 games (1.05 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 43W 9D 5L in their last 57 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.07 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-4 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
1
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Le Havre, 72% for Paris Saint Germain — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Le Havre and 62% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Le Havre's games and 72% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Le Havre's matches and 62% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Le Havre and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris Saint Germain defy the odds to beat Le Havre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 0-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.29 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.26 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Le Havre fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.22 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 37% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 36%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Paris Saint Germain win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 53%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.