Le Havre 0-2 Montpellier – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 27 as Le Havre welcome Montpellier to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Montpellier have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Le Havre) versus 0.90 (Montpellier). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Le Havre, 0 for Montpellier and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Montpellier in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Montpellier 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 36% | Montpellier 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.38 xG and Montpellier 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.860 / defence 0.929 | Montpellier attack 0.976 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.283. Montpellier bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Le Havre games / 64 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 41% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 31%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Montpellier 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 40% | Montpellier 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Montpellier | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 41% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Le Havre 1.38 / Montpellier 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.860 / def 0.929 | Montpellier attack 0.976 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Montpellier xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Montpellier kick off?
Le Havre vs Montpellier kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Le Havre 0 - 2 Montpellier.
Where is Le Havre vs Montpellier being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Montpellier part of?
Le Havre vs Montpellier is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 41% chance of winning, Montpellier a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Le Havre and Montpellier will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Montpellier have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Montpellier?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 1 | Montpellier 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Montpellier in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Montpellier (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Montpellier's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Montpellier's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.54
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Montpellier xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Montpellier expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.16 for Montpellier, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Montpellier?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 26W 24D 14L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Montpellier's form line: 21W 14D 29L from 64 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.59 PPG, Montpellier on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.84 PPG from 31 outings (16W 9D 6L).
On the road, Montpellier have gone 12W 3D 16L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Montpellier are on 1.50 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Montpellier
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Montpellier in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 26W 24D 14L in their last 64 games (1.59 PPG), while Montpellier have gone 21W 14D 29L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Montpellier away?
Le Havre's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.84 PPG; Montpellier away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Montpellier been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Montpellier in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Le Havre have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Le Havre's record when hosting Montpellier specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Montpellier
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Montpellier?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Montpellier have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Montpellier last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Montpellier 0-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Montpellier?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 36%, Montpellier 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Le Havre) and 58% (Montpellier).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 32% of games; Montpellier in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Montpellier away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Montpellier?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Le Havre's recent matches and 45% of Montpellier's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Montpellier usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Le Havre's recent games and 58% of Montpellier's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Montpellier tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Montpellier in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Montpellier cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier beat Le Havre 0-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.38 xG and Montpellier 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Le Havre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Montpellier outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Montpellier attack 0.98 / defence 1.20, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 41% | Draw 28% | Montpellier 31%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Montpellier win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 36%, Montpellier 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Montpellier's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.59 PPG, Montpellier 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Montpellier win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.