Le Havre vs Estac Troyes – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 36%, yet in-form Estac Troyes provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Estac Troyes travel to to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's home record at : 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Estac Troyes are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Estac Troyes trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Estac Troyes 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 31% | Estac Troyes 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.26 xG and Estac Troyes 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.793 / defence 0.941 | Estac Troyes attack 0.961 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.325. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Le Havre games / 2 Estac Troyes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 33%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Estac Troyes 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estac Troyes (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Estac Troyes 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 36% | Draw 31% | Estac Troyes 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Le Havre 1.26 / Estac Troyes 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.793 / def 0.941 | Estac Troyes attack 0.961 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Estac Troyes xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Le Havre vs Estac Troyes is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 April 2027.
What competition is Le Havre vs Estac Troyes part of?
Le Havre vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 36% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Le Havre and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Estac Troyes in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
36%
2.78
31%
3.24
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.46
1.20
Estac Troyes xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.20 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 15D 14L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 21W 8D 7L from 36 games, 1.97 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (5W 8D 5L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 6D 5L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.72 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 21W 8D 7L in their last 36 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Estac Troyes away?
Estac Troyes's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.28 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 36%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 56%, Estac Troyes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Le Havre) and 50% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 33%; Le Havre have failed to score in 39% of games; Estac Troyes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Le Havre's recent games and 50% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.