Le Havre vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Le Havre welcome Auxerre to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Le Havre: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Auxerre, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Le Havre and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Auxerre 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 31% | Auxerre 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.52 xG and Auxerre 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.793 / defence 0.941 | Auxerre attack 1.077 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.325. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Le Havre games / 36 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 32%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Le Havre dominate the H2H record, yet Auxerre are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 40% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Le Havre 1.52 / Auxerre 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.793 / def 0.941 | Auxerre attack 1.077 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Auxerre xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Auxerre kick off?
Le Havre vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 15:15 on Sunday 18 October 2026.
What competition is Le Havre vs Auxerre part of?
Le Havre vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 40% chance of winning, Auxerre a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Le Havre and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 4W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.79) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.56
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.86
1.34
Auxerre xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.34 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 15D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 0.94 PPG from 36 outings (8W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.00 PPG, Auxerre on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 5W 8D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.67 points per game from 18 outings (2W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.03 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 14L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Auxerre away?
Le Havre's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.28 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 56%, Auxerre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Le Havre) and 44% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 39% of games; Auxerre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Le Havre's recent games and 44% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Auxerre tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.