Estac Troyes 0-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 51%, yet in-form Toulouse provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estac Troyes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Toulouse have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Toulouse are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 56% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 41% | Toulouse 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.68 xG and Toulouse 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.898 / defence 0.927 | Toulouse attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.334. Data: 39 Estac Troyes games / 1 Toulouse games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 23%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Toulouse 4.35. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Toulouse (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 40% | Toulouse 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Estac Troyes 1.68 / Toulouse 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.898 / def 0.927 | Toulouse attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Toulouse xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Toulouse kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Estac Troyes 0 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Toulouse part of?
Estac Troyes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 51% chance of winning, Toulouse a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estac Troyes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Toulouse in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.85x) against Estac Troyes's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.84
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.73
1.05
Toulouse xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
4%
23.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.05 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 9W 11D 19L from 39 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 5L across 39 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 5W 7D 7L from 19 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 9W 6D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.13 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 9W 11D 19L in their last 39 games (0.97 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 23W 11D 5L in their last 39 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.16 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Toulouse in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 53%, Toulouse 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Estac Troyes) and 47% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Toulouse in 37%; Toulouse in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 53% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 47% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Estac Troyes 0-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.68 xG and Toulouse 1.05 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 51% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 23%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Toulouse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 41%, Toulouse 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.