Estac Troyes vs Toulouse Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Toulouse at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Toulouse encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Toulouse make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 24 April 2027 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Estac Troyes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Toulouse have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Toulouse away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Toulouse are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Toulouse edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2026, ended Estac Troyes 0–0 Toulouse — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 46% versus Toulouse 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Toulouse 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.12 xG and Toulouse 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.740 / defence 1.361 | Toulouse attack 1.128 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.740 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.361 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 10 games and Toulouse's last 43.

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 20% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 57%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 4.99 | Draw 4.42 | Toulouse 1.74. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 50% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 70% (last 10 away games).

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