Estac Troyes 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Auxerre make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 4 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Estac Troyes. A 0.50 PPG lead over Auxerre (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Auxerre in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 63% and Auxerre 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 2.07 xG and Auxerre 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.988 / defence 1.115 | Auxerre attack 0.764 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.421. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Estac Troyes games / 13 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 56% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 21%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Auxerre 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Estac Troyes (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 70% | Auxerre 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 56% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Estac Troyes 2.07 / Auxerre 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.988 / def 1.115 | Auxerre attack 0.764 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Auxerre xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Auxerre kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre part of?
Estac Troyes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 56% chance of winning, Auxerre a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Estac Troyes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.76x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.49
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.28
1.21
Auxerre xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
3%
37.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.21 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 12W 15D 24L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 22W 16D 13L from 51 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (6W 11D 8L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 10W 8D 7L from 25 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.39 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Auxerre in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 12W 15D 24L in their last 51 games (1.00 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 22W 16D 13L in their last 51 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.16 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Auxerre have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Auxerre have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2024, when Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 60%, Auxerre 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Estac Troyes) and 56% (Auxerre).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Estac Troyes's games and 68% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 56% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and Auxerre finished level at 1-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 2.07 xG and Auxerre 1.21 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Auxerre attack 0.76 / defence 1.42, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 56% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 21%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.