Clermont Foot 1-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel Montpied this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Saint Etienne (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Clermont Foot 0W, Saint Etienne 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 2–3 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 44% versus Saint Etienne 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Saint Etienne 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.12 xG and Saint Etienne 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.804 / defence 1.174 | Saint Etienne attack 0.632 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.164. Data: 23 Clermont Foot games / 23 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 28%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Saint Etienne 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Saint Etienne 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Clermont Foot 1.12 / Saint Etienne 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.804 / def 1.174 | Saint Etienne attack 0.632 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Saint Etienne xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne?
Clermont Foot 1 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne part of?
Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 41% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.80) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.63x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.18
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.99
0.86
Saint Etienne xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.86 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 6D 11L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 4W 6D 13L from 23 games, 0.78 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Clermont Foot against 0.78 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Clermont Foot come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 0.96 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 games (1.04 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 4W 6D 13L in their last 23 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Saint Etienne away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.18 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Saint Etienne have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Saint Etienne 1-0 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 54%, Saint Etienne 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Clermont Foot) and 36% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 27% of games; Saint Etienne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 46% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 36% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Clermont Foot 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Clermont Foot 1-2 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.12 xG and Saint Etienne 0.86 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Saint Etienne attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 28%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Saint Etienne 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.04 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.