Clermont Foot 4-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Gabriel-Montpied — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reims have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.00 for Reims. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Clermont Foot have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Reims in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Clermont Foot 2W, Reims 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Reims 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 47% | Reims 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.18 xG and Reims 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.768 / defence 1.231 | Reims attack 0.958 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.341. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Clermont Foot games / 68 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 28% | Draw 26% | Reims 46%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Reims 2.17. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Reims 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 28% | Draw 26% | Reims 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Clermont Foot 1.18 / Reims 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.768 / def 1.231 | Reims attack 0.958 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Reims (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Reims xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Reims kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Clermont Foot 4 - 1 Reims.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Reims part of?
Clermont Foot vs Reims is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 28% chance of winning, Reims a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Clermont Foot and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Reims?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 2W | Draws 1 | Reims 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Reims in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Reims (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Reims's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.96x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
28%
3.57
26%
3.87
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.76
1.58
Reims xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
17.37
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.58 for Reims, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 21W 18D 29L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Reims's form line: 23W 22D 23L from 68 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.34 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.21 PPG from 34 outings (11W 8D 15L).
On the road, Reims have gone 9W 13D 12L from 34 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Reims in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 21W 18D 29L in their last 68 games (1.19 PPG), while Reims have gone 23W 22D 23L in their last 68 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Reims away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.21 PPG; Reims away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Reims in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Reims have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Clermont Foot won 4-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
4
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Reims have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 47%, Reims 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Clermont Foot) and 50% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 38% of games; Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 59% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 50% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Reims tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Reims in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Clermont Foot run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Reims.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Reims 4-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.18 xG and Reims 1.58 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.77 / defence 1.23 against Reims attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 28% | Draw 26% | Reims 46%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 47%, Reims 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.19 PPG, Reims 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Reims (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.