Clermont Foot 0-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantes at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Clermont Foot and Nantes meet at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 January 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nantes (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nantes have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Clermont Foot, 1.40 for Nantes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Clermont Foot 0W, Nantes 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 54% versus Nantes 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 51% | Nantes 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.13 xG and Nantes 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / defence 1.167 | Nantes attack 0.911 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.304. Data: 57 Clermont Foot games / 57 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 29% | Nantes 42%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Nantes 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nantes at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Nantes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 29% | Nantes 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Clermont Foot 1.13 / Nantes 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.850 / def 1.167 | Nantes attack 0.911 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Nantes (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Nantes xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Nantes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Clermont Foot 0 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Nantes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 29% chance of winning, Nantes a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Clermont Foot and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nantes?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Nantes 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Nantes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Nantes (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.85x the league average against Nantes's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.91x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.46
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.51
1.39
Nantes xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.39 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 13D 27L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes's form line: 19W 19D 19L from 57 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.33 for Nantes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.11 PPG from 28 outings (8W 7D 13L).
On the road, Nantes have gone 5W 9D 14L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nantes's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.33 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Nantes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Nantes have gone 19W 19D 19L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Nantes away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.11 PPG; Nantes away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
3
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Nantes?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Nantes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Nantes 1-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 64%, Nantes 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Clermont Foot) and 46% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nantes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Clermont Foot's games and 57% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 46% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Nantes tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nantes in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Clermont Foot's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 20, as Clermont Foot and Nantes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.13 xG and Nantes 1.39 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nantes landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.85 / defence 1.17 against Nantes attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 29% | Draw 29% | Nantes 42%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 51%, Nantes 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nantes's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.12 PPG, Nantes 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.