Clermont Foot 2-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host Lyon at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Gabriel Montpied this season.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lyon's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (Clermont Foot) versus 2.10 (Lyon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Clermont Foot have won 1, Lyon 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lyon in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 51% versus Lyon 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 47% | Lyon 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.99 xG and Lyon 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.772 / defence 1.111 | Lyon attack 1.264 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.256. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Clermont Foot games / 72 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 23% | Lyon 56%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | Lyon 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 40% | Lyon 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 23% | Lyon 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Clermont Foot 0.99 / Lyon 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.772 / def 1.111 | Lyon attack 1.264 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Lyon (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Lyon xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Lyon kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Lyon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Lyon part of?
Clermont Foot vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 21% chance of winning, Lyon a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Clermont Foot and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
Record (3 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 1 | Lyon 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Lyon in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lyon (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.77x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
21%
4.77
23%
4.28
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.75
1.76
Lyon xG
4.77
21%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
4%
27.88
21%
4.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.76 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 23W 17D 32L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 33W 19D 20L from 72 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Lyon are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.17 PPG from 36 outings (11W 9D 16L).
On the road, Lyon have gone 14W 9D 13L from 36 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.71 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 68%.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Lyon in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Lyon have gone 33W 19D 20L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.17 PPG; Lyon away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Lyon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 3, Lyon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Lyon?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 58%, Lyon 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Clermont Foot) and 58% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Clermont Foot's games and 64% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Clermont Foot vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Clermont Foot's matches and 58% of Lyon's.
Do Clermont Foot and Lyon tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lyon in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Lyon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Lyon 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.99 xG and Lyon 1.76 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Lyon attack 1.26 / defence 0.89, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 21% | Draw 23% | Lyon 56%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Clermont Foot win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 47%, Lyon 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.