Auxerre 0-5 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Toulouse are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Auxerre 0W, Toulouse 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 64% versus Toulouse 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.87 xG and Toulouse 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.859 / defence 1.181 | Toulouse attack 0.808 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.339. Toulouse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Auxerre games / 17 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 26%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Toulouse 3.85. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Toulouse (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Auxerre 1.87 / Toulouse 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.859 / def 1.181 | Toulouse attack 0.808 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Toulouse xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Toulouse kick off?
Auxerre vs Toulouse kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 11 January 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Auxerre 0 - 5 Toulouse.
Where is Auxerre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Toulouse part of?
Auxerre vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 51% chance of winning, Toulouse a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Auxerre and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.81x) against Auxerre's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.32
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.15
1.28
Toulouse xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
4%
25.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.28 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 17D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.78 PPG from 55 outings (28W 14D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Auxerre against 1.78 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 12W 8D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Toulouse's season.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.91 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 22W 17D 16L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 28W 14D 13L in their last 55 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Toulouse away?
Auxerre's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.63 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Toulouse in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Auxerre
3
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Toulouse have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 63%, Toulouse 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 56% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Toulouse in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Auxerre's games and 56% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Auxerre's recent games and 56% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Toulouse tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Auxerre 0-5 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.87 xG and Toulouse 1.28 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.28 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Toulouse attack 0.81 / defence 1.49, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 51% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 26%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Toulouse 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.51 PPG, Toulouse 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.