Auxerre 0-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 43%, yet in-form Strasbourg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Auxerre vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Strasbourg at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Strasbourg — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Strasbourg's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 2 for Strasbourg and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2025, ended 1–3 with Strasbourg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 56% and Strasbourg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 58% | Strasbourg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.45 xG and Strasbourg 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.983 / defence 0.798 | Strasbourg attack 1.005 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.373. Auxerre's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Auxerre games / 57 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 43% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 27%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Strasbourg 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Strasbourg (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Strasbourg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 43% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Auxerre 1.45 / Strasbourg 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.983 / def 0.798 | Strasbourg attack 1.005 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Strasbourg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Strasbourg kick off?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Auxerre 0 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Auxerre vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Strasbourg part of?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 43% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Auxerre and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Strasbourg 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Strasbourg in?
Auxerre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Strasbourg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.98) and Strasbourg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.35
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.55
1.10
Strasbourg xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.10 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 27W 16D 14L from 57 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 22L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Strasbourg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 18W 9D 2L from 29 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 6W 9D 14L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.32 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 65%.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 27W 16D 14L in their last 57 games (1.70 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 19W 16D 22L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Strasbourg away?
Auxerre's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.17 PPG; Strasbourg away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2025, when Strasbourg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Strasbourg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 48%, Strasbourg 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Auxerre) and 55% (Strasbourg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Auxerre's games and 66% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Auxerre's matches and 55% of Strasbourg's.
Do Auxerre and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Strasbourg defy the odds to beat Auxerre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.45 xG and Strasbourg 1.10 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.98 / defence 0.80 against Strasbourg attack 1.00 / defence 0.92, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 43% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 27%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 58%, Strasbourg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Strasbourg's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Strasbourg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.