Angers 4-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Saint Etienne make the trip to Stade Raymond Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Angers, 1.10 for Saint Etienne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Saint Etienne hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 0–3 with Saint Etienne winning.
It is worth noting that Saint Etienne have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Angers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 50% versus Saint Etienne 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 41% | Saint Etienne 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.98 xG and Saint Etienne 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.729 / defence 1.389 | Saint Etienne attack 0.715 / defence 1.712. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.356. Angers's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.712 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Angers games / 8 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 49% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 23%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 4.35. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Angers 80% | Saint Etienne 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 49% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Angers 1.98 / Saint Etienne 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.729 / def 1.389 | Saint Etienne attack 0.715 / def 1.712 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Angers (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Saint Etienne xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Angers vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Angers 4 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Angers vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Saint Etienne part of?
Angers vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 49% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Angers and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Saint Etienne?
Record (4 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 3W.
What form are Angers and Saint Etienne in?
Angers (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.71x) against Angers's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.66
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Angers xG
Total xG
3.32
1.35
Saint Etienne xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.78
3%
30.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Angers and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Angers and 1.35 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 12D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-D. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.65 PPG from 46 outings (22W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Angers against 1.65 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 13W 5D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.43 points per game from 23 outings (9W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.24 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 22W 10D 14L in their last 46 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Saint Etienne away?
Angers's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.91 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Angers or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 0-3 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Saint Etienne 3-3 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 48%, Saint Etienne 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Angers) and 44% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 44%; Saint Etienne in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Angers's recent matches and 30% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Angers's recent games and 44% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Saint Etienne 4-2 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.98 xG and Saint Etienne 1.35 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.73 / defence 1.39 against Saint Etienne attack 0.71 / defence 1.71, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 49% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 23%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 41%, Saint Etienne 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.57 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.