Angers 2-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 18 as Angers welcome Auxerre to Stade Raymond Kopa. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Angers at Stade Raymond Kopa this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Raymond Kopa this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Angers) versus 1.60 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Angers register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Angers, 2 for Auxerre and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Auxerre trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 47% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 42% | Auxerre 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.87 xG and Auxerre 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.884 / defence 1.340 | Auxerre attack 0.892 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.310. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Angers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Angers games / 17 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 43% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 31%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Auxerre 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Angers 60% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 43% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Angers 1.87 / Auxerre 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.884 / def 1.340 | Auxerre attack 0.892 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Angers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Auxerre xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Auxerre kick off?
Angers vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Angers 2 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Angers vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Auxerre part of?
Angers vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 43% chance of winning, Auxerre a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Angers and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
Record (5 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Angers and Auxerre in?
Angers (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.91
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Angers xG
Total xG
3.43
1.57
Auxerre xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
5%
20.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Angers and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Angers and 1.57 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers come into this having played 55 games, going 25W 12D 18L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.75 PPG from 55 outings (27W 15D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.58 PPG, Auxerre on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Angers's home form reads 15W 5D 7L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.37 points per game from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.75 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 25W 12D 18L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 27W 15D 13L in their last 55 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Auxerre away?
Angers's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.85 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Angers or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Angers's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Angers
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
From 9 meetings on record, Angers have won 3, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 48%, Auxerre 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Angers) and 59% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Angers's games and 67% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Angers's matches and 59% of Auxerre's.
Do Angers and Auxerre tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.87 xG and Auxerre 1.57 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.88 / defence 1.34 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 43% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 31%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 42%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Auxerre's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.58 PPG, Auxerre 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.