VPS 3-2 Gnistan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VPS at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VPS vs Gnistan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VPS and Gnistan meet at Lemonsoft Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
VPS (all games): 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 — 2.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
VPS at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Gnistan's record over their last 2 games: 0W 1D 1L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
The form ledger tips toward VPS. A 2.30 PPG lead over Gnistan (2.80 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 2.38 xG and Gnistan 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.951 / defence 0.938 | Gnistan attack 1.446 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.736 / away 1.422. Gnistan's defence rating of 1.445 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VPS's projected output up. Gnistan have an above-average attack rating of 1.446, which lifts their away xG to 1.93. Data: built from VPS's last 24 games and Gnistan's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: VPS 47% | Draw 23% | Gnistan 30%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.13 | Draw 4.32 | Gnistan 3.34. VPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 79% | Total xG 4.31. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.31 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% — both xG figures (2.38 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Form (VPS's last 10 home games and Gnistan's last 2 games) suggests only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 80% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, VPS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.31 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (VPS 24 games, Gnistan 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Gnistan | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 3 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 47% | Draw 23% | Gnistan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 79% (No 21%) | xG VPS 2.38 / Gnistan 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.951 / def 0.938 | Gnistan attack 1.446 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.736 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: VPS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Gnistan xG
79%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VPS vs Gnistan FAQs
What time does VPS vs Gnistan kick off?
VPS vs Gnistan kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Gnistan?
VPS 3 - 2 Gnistan.
Where is VPS vs Gnistan being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Gnistan part of?
VPS vs Gnistan is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 3) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Gnistan?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 47% chance of winning, Gnistan a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Gnistan?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both VPS and Gnistan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VPS vs Gnistan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates VPS's attack at 0.95x the league average against Gnistan's defence at 1.45x — combine the two and it projects 2.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gnistan's attack (1.45x) against VPS's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from VPS's last 24 games and Gnistan's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-2 (7.1%), 1-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.32
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
VPS xG
Total xG
4.31
1.93
Gnistan xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.86
Clean Sheet
15%
6.88
9%
10.86
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
3%
36.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VPS vs Gnistan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Gnistan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are VPS and Gnistan expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for VPS and 1.93 for Gnistan, a combined total of 4.31.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Gnistan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VPS's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five.
Gnistan, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 2.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gnistan heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
VPS are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Gnistan are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Gnistan in 0%.
Defensively: VPS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Gnistan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
VPS (Home) vs Gnistan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VPS
Early Season
Gnistan
Early Season
❓ VPS vs Gnistan Form FAQs
What form are VPS and Gnistan in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Gnistan have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have VPS or Gnistan been keeping clean sheets recently?
VPS have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Gnistan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between VPS and Gnistan, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gnistan won Gnistan 5-1 VPS on 8 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VPS have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gnistan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
VPS
4
Draws
3
Gnistan
Recent Meetings
❓ VPS vs Gnistan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Gnistan?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, VPS have won 2, Gnistan have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Gnistan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Gnistan 5-1 VPS.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Gnistan?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Gnistan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VPS vs Gnistan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VPS and Gnistan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of VPS's recent matches and 0% of Gnistan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are VPS and Gnistan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of VPS's recent games and 50% of Gnistan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out Gnistan 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Gnistan 3-2 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 2.38 xG and Gnistan 1.93 xG, a combined 4.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Gnistan attack 1.45 / defence 1.45, drawn from 24/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it VPS 47% | Draw 23% | Gnistan 30%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 0%, Gnistan 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. VPS scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gnistan scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.