SJK 3-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSP Stadion, SJK have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SJK are significantly better at OmaSP Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SJK against 0.90 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mariehamn in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: SJK 3W, Mariehamn 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 2–0 with SJK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 49% versus Mariehamn 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 45% | Mariehamn 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.39 xG and Mariehamn 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.041 / defence 1.138 | Mariehamn attack 1.010 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.236. Data: 42 SJK games / 42 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 36% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 37%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Mariehamn 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SJK 60% | Mariehamn 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 36% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG SJK 1.39 / Mariehamn 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.041 / def 1.138 | Mariehamn attack 1.010 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Mariehamn xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
SJK 3 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 36% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
Record (4 meetings): SJK 3W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in?
SJK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.04x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (1.01x) against SJK's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.72
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SJK xG
Total xG
2.81
1.42
Mariehamn xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SJK and 1.42 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, SJK have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 19W 10D 18L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn's form line: 12W 13D 22L from 47 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for SJK against 1.04 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Mariehamn away?
SJK's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.78 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SJK have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won 0-4 on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
SJK
0
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 8, Mariehamn have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when SJK 3-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 61%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SJK) and 48% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: SJK keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Mariehamn in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SJK's games and 61% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SJK's recent games and 48% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Mariehamn tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat Mariehamn 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 3-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.39 xG and Mariehamn 1.42 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Mariehamn attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 36% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 37%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 45%, Mariehamn 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.43 PPG, Mariehamn 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.