SJK 2-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 50%, yet in-form Haka provide a compelling counter-argument — this SJK vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Haka travel to OmaSP Stadion to take on SJK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 June 2024, 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SJK stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK at OmaSP Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Haka have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Haka — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SJK register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Haka in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SJK have won 1, Haka 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Haka winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SJK in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Haka in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus Haka 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | Haka 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.81 xG and Haka 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.109 / defence 1.044 | Haka attack 0.905 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.276. Data: 35 SJK games / 34 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 50% | Draw 26% | Haka 24%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Haka 4.17. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Haka (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SJK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: SJK 80% | Haka 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jun 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 50% | Draw 26% | Haka 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG SJK 1.81 / Haka 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.109 / def 1.044 | Haka attack 0.905 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: SJK (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Haka xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs Haka kick off?
SJK vs Haka kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 29 June 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Haka?
SJK 2 - 1 Haka.
Where is SJK vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Haka part of?
SJK vs Haka is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 50% chance of winning, Haka a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SJK and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
Record (4 meetings): SJK 1W | Draws 0 | Haka 3W.
What form are SJK and Haka in?
SJK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Haka (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SJK's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus SJK's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.79
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
SJK xG
Total xG
3.02
1.21
Haka xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
4%
25.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SJK and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for SJK and 1.21 for Haka, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, SJK have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 22W 12D 22L record — L-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Haka's form line: 21W 17D 18L from 56 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SJK on 1.39 PPG, Haka on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Haka have gone 9W 5D 14L from 28 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SJK are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.41 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and Haka in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 22W 12D 22L in their last 56 games (1.39 PPG), while Haka have gone 21W 17D 18L in their last 56 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Haka away?
SJK's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.61 PPG; Haka away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when SJK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SJK's record when hosting Haka specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SJK
2
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 5, Haka have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Haka 2-3 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Haka?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 64%, Haka 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SJK and 61% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play Haka?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SJK's games and 50% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SJK's matches and 61% of Haka's.
Do SJK and Haka tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Haka in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Haka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Haka 2-1 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.81 xG and Haka 1.21 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Haka attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 50% | Draw 26% | Haka 24%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, Haka 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.39 PPG, Haka 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.