Mariehamn 2-1 HJK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates HJK Helsinki at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HJK Helsinki make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 June 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's home record at Wiklöf Holding Arena: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season.
HJK Helsinki (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for HJK Helsinki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, HJK Helsinki have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.50 for HJK Helsinki. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
HJK Helsinki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 33% versus HJK Helsinki 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | HJK Helsinki 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.70 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.904 / defence 0.965 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.831 / defence 0.583. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.350. HJK Helsinki's defence strength of 0.583 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Mariehamn games / 34 HJK Helsinki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 24% | Draw 32% | HJK Helsinki 44%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | HJK Helsinki 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Mariehamn's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates HJK Helsinki as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on HJK Helsinki if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 30% | HJK Helsinki 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Jun 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 24% | Draw 32% | HJK Helsinki 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 33% | xG Mariehamn 0.70 / HJK Helsinki 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.904 / def 0.965 | HJK Helsinki attack 0.831 / def 0.583 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: HJK Helsinki (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.08
HJK Helsinki xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki kick off?
Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 22 June 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Mariehamn 2 - 1 HJK Helsinki.
Where is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki part of?
Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 24% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making HJK Helsinki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. HJK Helsinki (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.90) and HJK Helsinki's defence rating (0.58), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — HJK Helsinki's attack (0.83x) against Mariehamn's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 32/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
HJK Helsinki Win
24%
4.25
32%
3.11
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
1.78
1.08
HJK Helsinki xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
50%
2.02
Win to Nil
8%
12.55
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 18.2 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.08 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn's recent record stands at 9W 3D 15L from 27 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
HJK Helsinki, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 4L across 27 games — 2.19 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for HJK Helsinki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours HJK Helsinki by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mariehamn have managed 4W 1D 8L from 13 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HJK Helsinki's away record stands at 9W 3D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, HJK Helsinki come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; HJK Helsinki are on 1.52 scored and 0.70 conceded.
Defensively: HJK Helsinki in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
HJK Helsinki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while HJK Helsinki have gone 18W 5D 4L in their last 27 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or HJK Helsinki away?
HJK Helsinki's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.00 PPG; HJK Helsinki away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or HJK Helsinki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, HJK Helsinki in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: HJK Helsinki have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: HJK Helsinki won 8-2 on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against HJK Helsinki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Mariehamn
1
Draws
8
HJK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 1, HJK Helsinki have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when Mariehamn 0-4 HJK Helsinki.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki?
HJK Helsinki have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
HJK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Mariehamn) and 38% (HJK Helsinki) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 38% (HJK Helsinki).
On the defensive side: HJK Helsinki in 62%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / HJK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play HJK Helsinki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 38% of HJK Helsinki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 38% of HJK Helsinki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and HJK Helsinki tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, HJK Helsinki in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat HJK Helsinki 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat HJK Helsinki 2-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.70 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.08 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.90 / defence 0.96 against HJK Helsinki attack 0.83 / defence 0.58, drawn from 32/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 24% | Draw 32% | HJK Helsinki 44%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Mariehamn win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, HJK Helsinki 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
HJK Helsinki's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, HJK Helsinki arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.