Mariehamn 2-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Mariehamn welcome Haka to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mariehamn at 1.60 PPG versus Haka's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 1, Haka 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Mariehamn winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Haka trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 48% versus Haka 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 50% | Haka 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.18 xG and Haka 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.980 / defence 1.342 | Haka attack 1.076 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.099. Data: 27 Mariehamn games / 28 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 26% | Draw 30% | Haka 44%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Haka 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 70% | Haka 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 26% | Draw 30% | Haka 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Mariehamn 1.18 / Haka 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.980 / def 1.342 | Haka attack 1.076 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Haka (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Haka xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Haka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Mariehamn 2 - 1 Haka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Haka part of?
Mariehamn vs Haka is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 26% chance of winning, Haka a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mariehamn and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
Record (2 meetings): Mariehamn 1W | Draws 0 | Haka 1W.
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
26%
3.86
30%
3.34
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.77
1.59
Haka xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
5%
18.90
14%
7.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.59 for Haka, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 18W 10D 26L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 24W 11D 19L from 54 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.19 PPG, Haka on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
On the road, Haka have gone 12W 5D 9L from 26 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.35 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Haka
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 18W 10D 26L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Haka have gone 24W 11D 19L in their last 54 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Haka away?
Haka's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.15 PPG; Haka away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Haka in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Haka?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, Haka 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 50% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 42%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 35% of games; Haka in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 38% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 50% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Haka tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Haka in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat Haka 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Haka 2-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.18 xG and Haka 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Haka attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 26% | Draw 30% | Haka 44%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 50%, Haka 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.19 PPG, Haka 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.