KuPS 0-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 63% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KuPS and SJK meet at Vare Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, KuPS have posted 7W 1D 2L at Vare Areena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SJK's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SJK's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — KuPS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, SJK in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, KuPS have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with SJK managing just 0 victories and 3 draws shared.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with KuPS winning.
The historical record gives KuPS a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KuPS 56% and SJK 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (KuPS 56% | SJK 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.91 xG and SJK 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.183 / defence 0.982 | SJK attack 0.848 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.012. SJK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 KuPS games / 27 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 63% | Draw 22% | SJK 16%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | SJK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 80% | SJK 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 63% | Draw 22% | SJK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG KuPS 1.91 / SJK 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.183 / def 0.982 | SJK attack 0.848 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.012 • Poisson stance: KuPS (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.84
SJK xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs SJK kick off?
KuPS vs SJK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 8 May 2026 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs SJK?
KuPS 0 - 0 SJK.
Where is KuPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs SJK part of?
KuPS vs SJK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 63% chance of winning, SJK a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KuPS and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
Record (8 meetings): KuPS 5W | Draws 3 | SJK 0W.
What form are KuPS and SJK in?
KuPS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.85x) against KuPS's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.64
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.76
0.84
SJK xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
2%
42.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are KuPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for KuPS and 0.84 for SJK, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS come into this having played 59 games, going 37W 12D 10L for 2.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.68 PPG from 59 outings (28W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of SJK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
KuPS's home form reads 24W 1D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.63 points per game from 30 outings (14W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.98 scored and 1.63 conceded. SJK's attacking output running into KuPS's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 68%.
Last 59 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Current Season
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and SJK in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 37W 12D 10L in their last 59 games (2.08 PPG), while SJK have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or SJK away?
KuPS's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.43 PPG; SJK away: 1.63 PPG.
Have KuPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SJK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
4
Draws
0
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 6, SJK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and SJK?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 57%, SJK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for KuPS and 83% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of KuPS's games and 67% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KuPS vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of KuPS's matches and 83% of SJK's.
Do KuPS and SJK tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SJK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at KuPS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS and SJK finished level at 0-0 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 6, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.91 xG and SJK 0.84 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. KuPS fell 1.9 short of their projected output. SJK landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against SJK attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 63% | Draw 22% | SJK 16%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 56%, SJK 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
SJK's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.