KuPS 1-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
KuPS (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Väre Areena, KuPS have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — KuPS are significantly better at Väre Areena than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward KuPS. A 0.70 PPG lead over Mariehamn (1.80 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KuPS lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 50% versus Mariehamn 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 48% | Mariehamn 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 2.19 xG and Mariehamn 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.352 / defence 0.708 | Mariehamn attack 0.818 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.377. KuPS carry an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KuPS's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 KuPS games / 39 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 69% | Draw 20% | Mariehamn 12%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.45 | Draw 5.00 | Mariehamn 8.33. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: KuPS 70% | Mariehamn 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 69% | Draw 20% | Mariehamn 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 49% | xG KuPS 2.19 / Mariehamn 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.352 / def 0.708 | Mariehamn attack 0.818 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: KuPS (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Mariehamn xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
KuPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS 1 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is KuPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Mariehamn part of?
KuPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 69% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KuPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
Record (2 meetings): KuPS 1W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in?
KuPS (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.35x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.82x) against KuPS's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
69%
1.46
20%
5.07
12%
8.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.99
0.80
Mariehamn xG
1.46
69%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
8.60
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
77.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are KuPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for KuPS and 0.80 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 44 games, going 28W 11D 5L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.09 PPG from 44 outings (13W 9D 22L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 15W 7D 1L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.05 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 28W 11D 5L in their last 44 games (2.16 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 13W 9D 22L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Mariehamn away?
KuPS's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.26 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.96 PPG.
Have KuPS or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Mariehamn?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 48%, Mariehamn 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (KuPS) and 44% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Mariehamn in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of KuPS's recent matches and 44% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of KuPS's recent games and 44% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Mariehamn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Mariehamn 1-0 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 2.19 xG and Mariehamn 0.80 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KuPS fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.35 / defence 0.71 against Mariehamn attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 69% | Draw 20% | Mariehamn 12%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 48%, Mariehamn 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mariehamn's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.