KuPS 3-2 Honka – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KuPS at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this KuPS vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Honka make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
KuPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS at Väre Areena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — KuPS are significantly better at Väre Areena than their overall form suggests.
Honka (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Honka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Honka have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for KuPS against 2.00 for Honka. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KuPS lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
KuPS — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Honka — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 50% versus Honka 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 48% | Honka 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.39 xG and Honka 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.153 / defence 0.626 | Honka attack 1.047 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. KuPS's defence rating of 0.626 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 KuPS games / 44 Honka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 29% | Honka 25%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Honka 4.00. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 50% | Honka 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 46% | Draw 29% | Honka 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG KuPS 1.39 / Honka 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.153 / def 0.626 | Honka attack 1.047 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: KuPS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Honka xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Honka kick off?
KuPS vs Honka kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Honka?
KuPS 3 - 2 Honka.
Where is KuPS vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Honka part of?
KuPS vs Honka is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 46% chance of winning, Honka a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both KuPS and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Honka?
Record (4 meetings): KuPS 2W | Draws 1 | Honka 1W.
What form are KuPS and Honka in?
KuPS (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Honka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from KuPS's attack rating (1.15) and Honka's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Honka's attack (1.05x) against KuPS's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.42
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.34
0.95
Honka xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are KuPS and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for KuPS and 0.95 for Honka, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, KuPS have picked up 2.10 PPG on a 31W 12D 7L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Honka's form line: 22W 11D 17L from 50 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Honka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Honka.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.29 PPG from 24 outings (16W 7D 1L).
On the road, Honka have gone 9W 5D 10L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Honka are on 1.72 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Honka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Honka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 31W 12D 7L in their last 50 games (2.10 PPG), while Honka have gone 22W 11D 17L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Honka away?
KuPS's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.29 PPG; Honka away: 1.33 PPG.
Have KuPS or Honka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Honka in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: KuPS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Honka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
2
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Honka?
From 8 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Honka have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when KuPS 3-1 Honka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Honka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Honka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 46%, Honka 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (KuPS) and 50% (Honka).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Honka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of KuPS's recent matches and 58% of Honka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Honka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of KuPS's recent games and 50% of Honka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Honka tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Honka in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Honka 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Honka 3-2 at Väre Areena, Championship Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.39 xG and Honka 0.95 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Honka outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.15 / defence 0.63 against Honka attack 1.05 / defence 0.85, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 46% | Draw 29% | Honka 25%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 48%, Honka 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Honka's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.54. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Honka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.