Kooteepee 0-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mariehamn at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kooteepee vs Mariehamn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Relegation Round - 5 sees Mariehamn travel to Arto Tolsa Areena to take on Kooteepee. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arto Tolsa Areena, Kooteepee have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Kooteepee are significantly better at Arto Tolsa Areena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kooteepee at 0.30 PPG versus Mariehamn's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Kooteepee have won 1, Mariehamn 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kooteepee in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kooteepee 42% versus Mariehamn 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kooteepee 46% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kooteepee 1.19 xG and Mariehamn 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kooteepee attack 0.804 / defence 1.241 | Mariehamn attack 1.025 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. Data: 22 Kooteepee games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kooteepee 28% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 47%. Fair-value odds: Kooteepee 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Mariehamn 2.13. Mariehamn hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kooteepee 50% | Mariehamn 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kooteepee vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Arto Tolsa Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kooteepee 28% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Kooteepee 1.19 / Mariehamn 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Kooteepee attack 0.804 / def 1.241 | Mariehamn attack 1.025 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Kooteepee xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Mariehamn xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kick off?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What was the final score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Kooteepee 0 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Arto Tolsa Areena.
What competition is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn part of?
Kooteepee vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Kooteepee a 28% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kooteepee and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Kooteepee vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Record (5 meetings): Kooteepee 1W | Draws 1 | Mariehamn 3W.
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in?
Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kooteepee's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Kooteepee's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
28%
3.62
25%
3.98
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Kooteepee xG
Total xG
2.82
1.63
Mariehamn xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
18.43
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kooteepee and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Kooteepee and 1.63 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Kooteepee vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kooteepee's recent record stands at 5W 5D 16L from 26 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 4W 7D 15L across 26 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kooteepee on 0.77 PPG, Mariehamn on 0.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kooteepee have managed 3W 3D 6L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kooteepee are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.00 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kooteepee
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kooteepee and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Kooteepee have gone 5W 5D 16L in their last 26 games (0.77 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 4W 7D 15L in their last 26 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kooteepee at home or Mariehamn away?
Kooteepee's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kooteepee at home: 1.00 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Mariehamn won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kooteepee's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Kooteepee
3
Draws
5
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Kooteepee have won 1, Mariehamn have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kooteepee and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Kooteepee 1-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Kooteepee and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kooteepee 42%, Mariehamn 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kooteepee) and 58% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Kooteepee have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kooteepee home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kooteepee play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Kooteepee's games and 75% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kooteepee vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kooteepee's recent games and 58% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kooteepee and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Kooteepee have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Kooteepee 0-2 at Arto Tolsa Areena, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kooteepee 1.19 xG and Mariehamn 1.63 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kooteepee fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kooteepee attack 0.80 / defence 1.24 against Mariehamn attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kooteepee 28% | Draw 25% | Mariehamn 47%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kooteepee 46%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kooteepee's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mariehamn's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kooteepee 0.77 PPG, Mariehamn 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Kooteepee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.