Ilves 2-2 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs SJK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and SJK meet at Tammelan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Tammelan Stadion, Ilves have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ilves are significantly better at Tammelan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SJK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, SJK have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ilves register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, SJK in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ilves lead 1W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SJK — key trading statistics (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 54% and SJK 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ilves 63% | SJK 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.96 xG and SJK 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.180 / defence 0.887 | SJK attack 1.076 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.159. Data: 35 Ilves games / 34 SJK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 55% | Draw 26% | SJK 19%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | SJK 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 90% | SJK 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jun 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 55% | Draw 26% | SJK 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Ilves 1.96 / SJK 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.180 / def 0.887 | SJK attack 1.076 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Ilves (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SJK xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs SJK kick off?
Ilves vs SJK kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 27 June 2026 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs SJK?
Ilves 2 - 2 SJK.
Where is Ilves vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs SJK part of?
Ilves vs SJK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 55% chance of winning, SJK a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ilves and SJK will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
Record (9 meetings): Ilves 1W | Draws 5 | SJK 3W.
What form are Ilves and SJK in?
Ilves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. SJK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ilves's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — SJK's attack (1.08x) against Ilves's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.92
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.06
1.11
SJK xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
3%
36.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Ilves and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Ilves and 1.11 for SJK, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs SJK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 34W 12D 13L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
SJK's form line: 28W 15D 16L from 59 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Ilves against 1.68 for SJK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (20W 6D 4L).
On the road, SJK have gone 14W 7D 9L from 30 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.98 scored and 1.63 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 68%.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Current Season
SJK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and SJK in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 34W 12D 13L in their last 59 games (1.93 PPG), while SJK have gone 28W 15D 16L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or SJK away?
Ilves's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.20 PPG; SJK away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Ilves or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, SJK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 4-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 1W 4D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ilves
6
Draws
3
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and SJK?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 1, SJK have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and SJK last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Ilves 2-2 SJK.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Ilves, 67% for SJK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Ilves and 83% for SJK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play SJK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ilves's games and 67% of SJK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs SJK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Ilves's matches and 83% of SJK's.
Do Ilves and SJK tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SJK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves and SJK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves and SJK finished level at 2-2 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.96 xG and SJK 1.11 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SJK outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against SJK attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 55% | Draw 26% | SJK 19%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 63%, SJK 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
SJK's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.93 PPG, SJK 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.