Ilves 1-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and KuPS meet at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Tehtaan kenttä this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tehtaan kenttä. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KuPS have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
KuPS arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 37% versus KuPS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 37% | KuPS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.18 xG and KuPS 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.990 / defence 0.922 | KuPS attack 1.049 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.270. Data: 23 Ilves games / 23 KuPS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ilves 35% | Draw 28% | KuPS 37%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | KuPS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 20% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 35% | Draw 28% | KuPS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Ilves 1.18 / KuPS 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.990 / def 0.922 | KuPS attack 1.049 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: KuPS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.23
KuPS xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs KuPS kick off?
Ilves vs KuPS kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Ilves 1 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Ilves vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Ilves vs KuPS part of?
Ilves vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 35% chance of winning, KuPS a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ilves and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and KuPS in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ilves's attack rating (0.99) and KuPS's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.05x) against Ilves's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
The sample (23/23 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.63
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.41
1.23
KuPS xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ilves and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ilves and 1.23 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Ilves have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 11W 3D 13L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 17W 7D 3L from 27 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ilves.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ilves have posted 1.92 PPG from 13 outings (8W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, KuPS have gone 9W 2D 2L from 13 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.70 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; KuPS in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and KuPS in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 11W 3D 13L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while KuPS have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.92 PPG; KuPS away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Ilves or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, KuPS in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 23%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Ilves) and 46% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; KuPS in 38%; Ilves have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Ilves's recent matches and 54% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Ilves's recent games and 46% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and KuPS tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, KuPS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Ilves 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 1-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.18 xG and KuPS 1.23 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.99 / defence 0.92 against KuPS attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 35% | Draw 28% | KuPS 37%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 37%, KuPS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Ilves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.