Ilves 0-2 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ilves and AC Oulu meet at Ratinan Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Monday 11 July 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Ratinan Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
AC Oulu (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Ilves, 1.60 for AC Oulu — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Ilves — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 46% versus AC Oulu 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 46% | AC Oulu 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.37 xG and AC Oulu 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.087 / defence 0.936 | AC Oulu attack 0.964 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.418. Data: 34 Ilves games / 35 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 35%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | AC Oulu 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 50% | AC Oulu 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Ilves 1.37 / AC Oulu 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.087 / def 0.936 | AC Oulu attack 0.964 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.28
AC Oulu xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs AC Oulu kick off?
Ilves vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Ilves 0 - 2 AC Oulu.
Where is Ilves vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs AC Oulu part of?
Ilves vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 39% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ilves and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and AC Oulu in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ilves's attack at 1.09x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.96x) against Ilves's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.83
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ilves xG
Total xG
2.65
1.28
AC Oulu xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Ilves and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ilves and 1.28 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ilves's recent record stands at 16W 6D 17L from 39 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 19L across 39 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Ilves against 1.13 for AC Oulu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 12W 1D 6L from 19 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ilves are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.03 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 16W 6D 17L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 12W 8D 19L in their last 39 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or AC Oulu away?
Ilves's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.95 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Ilves or AC Oulu been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AC Oulu in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 0-4 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Ilves
1
Draws
2
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 7, AC Oulu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when AC Oulu 1-0 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and AC Oulu?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 37%, AC Oulu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ilves) and 53% (AC Oulu).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; AC Oulu in 32%; Ilves have failed to score in 26% of games; AC Oulu in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Ilves's recent matches and 47% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ilves's recent games and 53% of AC Oulu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and AC Oulu tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ilves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Ilves 0-2 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.37 xG and AC Oulu 1.28 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against AC Oulu attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 39% | Draw 26% | AC Oulu 35%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 46%, AC Oulu 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AC Oulu's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.38 PPG, AC Oulu 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.