Haka 2-2 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 41%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Haka vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host KuPS at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Haka — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Haka have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, KuPS have recorded 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KuPS's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. KuPS's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Haka's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Haka's games and 70% of KuPS's (from Haka's last 10 home games and KuPS's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Haka, 2 for KuPS and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Jun 2024, ended Haka 1–0 KuPS — a Haka win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
KuPS in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 62% versus KuPS 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 58% | KuPS 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Haka surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while KuPS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.50 xG and KuPS 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.083 / defence 1.026 | KuPS attack 0.941 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.384. Data: built from Haka's last 40 games and KuPS's last 40.
Result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 26% | KuPS 33%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.45 | Draw 3.87 | KuPS 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Haka's last 10 home games and KuPS's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haka 60% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 19 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 41% | Draw 26% | KuPS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Haka 1.50 / KuPS 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.083 / def 1.026 | KuPS attack 0.941 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Haka (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.34
KuPS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haka vs KuPS FAQs
What time does Haka vs KuPS kick off?
Haka vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs KuPS?
Haka 2 - 2 KuPS.
Where is Haka vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs KuPS part of?
Haka vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 19) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 41% chance of winning, KuPS a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Haka and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haka vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Haka's attack at 1.08x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KuPS's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haka's last 40 games and KuPS's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.87
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Haka xG
Total xG
2.84
1.34
KuPS xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haka vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Haka and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Haka and 1.34 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Haka come into this having played 45 games, going 16W 14D 15L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, KuPS sit at 2.00 PPG from 45 outings (27W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Haka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Haka's home form reads 9W 12D 2L across their last 23 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, KuPS have taken 1.91 points per game from their last 23 away games (12W 8D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.62 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
Haka (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haka
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Haka vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are Haka and KuPS in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 16W 14D 15L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while KuPS have gone 27W 9D 9L in their last 45 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.70 PPG; KuPS away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Haka or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, KuPS in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to May 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
KuPS have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won KuPS 3-0 Haka.
Haka's record when hosting KuPS specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haka
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Haka vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haka have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 74%, KuPS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Haka) and 44% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haka vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haka and KuPS matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Haka's games and 52% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haka and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Haka's recent games and 44% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Haka's recent matches and 61% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka and KuPS finished level at 2-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.50 xG and KuPS 1.34 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.08 / defence 1.03 against KuPS attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 41% | Draw 26% | KuPS 33%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 58%, KuPS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. KuPS (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.